Preseason Rankings
Ohio Valley
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
105 Murray St. 33.1%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 5 16 - 4 +4.5      +1.8 129 +2.6 97 70.0 140 0.0 1 0.0 1
114 Belmont 29.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 6 15 - 5 +4.0      +2.8 99 +1.2 134 73.5 65 0.0 1 0.0 1
133 Austin Peay 19.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 6 14 - 6 +1.8      +3.1 94 -1.3 213 67.9 205 0.0 1 0.0 1
186 Eastern Illinois 7.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 12 - 8 -1.7      -0.2 179 -1.5 217 70.4 131 0.0 1 0.0 1
211 Eastern Kentucky 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 11 - 9 -3.4      -1.0 200 -2.4 242 82.5 5 0.0 1 0.0 1
255 Jacksonville St. 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 14 9 - 11 -5.8      -4.1 289 -1.7 221 68.6 186 0.0 1 0.0 1
269 Tennessee St. 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 13 9 - 11 -6.3      -4.3 292 -2.0 231 71.1 111 0.0 1 0.0 1
296 Morehead St. 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 16 8 - 12 -7.7      -3.8 280 -4.0 290 67.1 231 0.0 1 0.0 1
304 Tennessee Tech 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 13 -8.4      -5.0 309 -3.3 271 66.5 243 0.0 1 0.0 1
324 Tennessee Martin 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 16 6 - 14 -11.5      -1.6 218 -9.9 344 70.0 139 0.0 1 0.0 1
325 Southeast Missouri St. 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 19 6 - 14 -11.8      -5.1 310 -6.7 329 67.6 219 0.0 1 0.0 1
331 SIU Edwardsville 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 21 5 - 15 -12.5      -6.7 327 -5.8 321 70.4 132 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Murray St. 2.4 40.5 23.0 16.2 9.4 5.1 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Belmont 2.5 35.0 27.2 16.7 9.5 5.3 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 3.1 25.8 22.3 18.3 12.9 8.3 5.3 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
Eastern Illinois 4.7 8.2 11.3 14.8 17.1 15.2 11.5 8.3 5.9 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.6
Eastern Kentucky 5.3 5.1 9.0 12.4 15.0 15.0 12.6 9.8 8.0 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.3
Jacksonville St. 6.6 2.2 3.9 7.2 11.0 12.5 13.5 12.9 11.8 9.3 7.4 5.3 3.1
Tennessee St. 6.7 1.7 3.8 6.8 9.9 12.3 13.1 13.8 11.7 10.4 7.8 5.6 3.0
Morehead St. 7.3 0.9 2.6 5.0 7.3 10.4 12.3 13.5 13.2 12.4 9.8 7.4 5.2
Tennessee Tech 8.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.3 7.4 9.8 11.8 13.1 14.7 13.4 11.7 7.9
Tennessee Martin 9.3 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.4 3.9 5.8 7.9 10.7 14.1 16.2 18.5 18.9
Southeast Missouri St. 9.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.5 4.3 6.4 9.0 11.6 13.9 15.2 17.4 17.8
SIU Edwardsville 9.7 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.7 6.9 9.4 12.9 16.2 20.6 23.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Murray St. 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.6 7.5 10.5 12.5 14.6 15.4 12.8 9.1 3.4
Belmont 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 4.1 5.6 8.2 11.2 13.4 15.4 14.8 11.8 7.6 3.0
Austin Peay 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.4 6.3 8.0 10.2 11.8 12.6 12.8 11.7 8.6 4.9 1.7
Eastern Illinois 12 - 8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.9 6.0 7.8 9.4 11.4 12.3 11.5 10.3 9.0 6.3 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.2 5.6 7.5 9.1 10.4 11.0 11.3 10.0 8.6 6.8 4.6 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1
Jacksonville St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.4 7.3 9.5 10.8 11.3 10.8 9.9 9.0 7.1 4.9 3.5 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tennessee St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.1 6.0 8.0 9.2 10.9 11.5 11.1 10.2 8.5 6.2 4.9 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Morehead St. 8 - 12 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.2 7.5 10.2 11.0 11.7 11.1 10.3 8.6 6.6 4.9 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0
Tennessee Tech 7 - 13 0.3 1.5 3.4 5.7 8.1 10.3 11.7 11.8 11.6 10.1 8.1 6.1 4.8 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 6 - 14 1.4 4.0 7.8 10.2 12.5 13.1 13.0 10.2 8.9 6.3 5.0 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 6 - 14 1.3 3.9 6.9 9.8 11.5 12.7 12.2 11.2 9.6 7.1 5.1 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 5 - 15 2.0 5.6 9.5 12.1 13.6 13.1 12.3 10.0 7.7 5.5 3.7 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Murray St. 40.5% 29.6 9.3 1.4 0.1 0.0
Belmont 35.0% 24.5 9.0 1.4 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 25.8% 17.4 7.1 1.2 0.1 0.0
Eastern Illinois 8.2% 4.7 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 5.1% 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tennessee St. 1.7% 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 0.5% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Murray St. 33.1% 32.3% 0.8% 13   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.9 5.6 9.3 7.6 3.8 1.2 66.9 1.2%
Belmont 29.3% 28.3% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.5 4.4 8.4 6.9 4.1 1.5 70.7 1.3%
Austin Peay 19.9% 19.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.6 5.3 5.7 3.2 1.2 80.1 0.5%
Eastern Illinois 7.9% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.8 2.5 1.9 92.1 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.0 94.9 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 97.4 0.0%
Tennessee St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 98.0 0.0%
Morehead St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 98.9 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.2 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Murray St. 33.1% 0.9% 32.7% 7.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 29.3% 1.0% 28.8% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 19.9% 0.7% 19.5% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 7.9% 0.8% 7.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 5.1% 0.4% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 2.6% 0.4% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 2.0% 0.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.7 2.3 0.0
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 97.0 1.5
2nd Round 17.7% 0.2 82.3 17.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 5.5% 0.1 94.5 5.5 0.0
Elite Eight 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3 0.0
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0